Traps and Swords or The Turkish Spring

Converte gladium tuum in locum suum. Omnes enim, qui acceperint gladium, gladio peribunt.

“Return your sword to its place, for all who will take up the sword, will die by the sword.”

وَمَكَرُوا وَمَكَرَ اللَّهُ وَاللَّهُ خَيْرُ الْمَاكِرِينَ

“And the disbelievers schemed, and Allah schemed against them: and Allah is the best of schemers.”

Quran 3:54

 

Yesterday, there was another explosion at Ankara happened near the headquarters of Turkish military and the main building of Ministry of Interior. A car bomb with at least 1000 kilograms of explosives (a source had claimed that it was more than two thousand kilograms), have been exploded at the middle of the road when military and civilian personnel were going to their homes with military vehicles.

At least 28 people died (according to some rumors, more than 50 people died, and one of them was a high-ranking Turkish military official), and 61 people injured (these rumors claim that more than 200 people were injured). And I survived from these bomb attack with fate, I was walking from there ten minutes before the explosion. And the explosion had been heard from more than five kilometers.

Typical for Turkish government, a publication ban issued almost immediately, Twitter and Facebook banned temporarily and the Internet has been slowed down by the initiative of government.

It is significant that these happened after Turkish military’s attack towards Kurds. Also, Turkish military began to deploy tanks and APCs to the Syrian border yesterday, furthermore, both Turkish government and military constantly declare that they would not allow Kurds to take Azez and some other towns in Northern Syria. All factions of Turkish military, especially Pan-Turkist faction of Turkish military (I mentioned about three different factions of Turkish military at here ) are eager to prevent Kurdish advances at Northern Syria, which is a legitimate reason for Turkish military and state, since a Syrian Kurdistan would circle Turkish borders with a hostile nation, and sever the connection between Syrian Turkmens (they are quite ineffective until now, thanks to Turkish diplomatic mistakes) and Turkey.

As a former member of Turkish military (I had to serve at the Turkish military thanks to conscription as a reserve officer, that would be the theme of another article), I can say these, below there my impressions:

• First, and the most important one; The Arab Spring (or should I say, Turkish Spring?) had definitely begun in Turkey, for now, Turkish state apparatus is handling it remarkably well.
• Second, Turkish military would not give up, they would carry on their offensive against Syrian Kurds, and if they had to attack Syrian soil with land forces, they also want to fight against ISIS. (Despite the widespread impressions, Turkish military is not supporting the so-called Islamic state, and the ISIS declared Turkish army and the members of Turkish armed forces as apostates at Dabiq [a journal of ISIS which is aimed towards international community], Kostantiniyye [ISIS journal in Turkish language and aimed towards Turkey] and numerous Twitter accounts affiliated with ISIS. Also, even in their jihad manuals they mentioned Turkish army as the army of pigs)
• Third, I also don’t think that Erdogan would give up, allowing the Kurds to win at Northern Syria would stir up Kurdish resistance at Turkey, already 309 Turkish security personnel died (I hope they are martyrs) at last nine months. Erdogan also planning to create a presidential system in Turkey with full powers, and he needs Turkish nationalist votes and/or Kurdish votes (It is almost impossible for him to win over secularist votes) in able to carry out that task. Erdogan also knows that Kurds in Turkey would kneel before the more powerful one, and if he can do that, he definitely knows that he would gain many Kurdish votes at the possible presidential referendum at 2017 (the date is my estimation.)
• Fourth, Kurds are playing with fire and trying to create a state for them. And they think that they can take some of the lands of Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Armenia (many Kurdish nationalists claim some lands from Armenian side of Armenian-Turkish border.). At the long-term; given the birthrates of Kurds, they could have a demographical advantage (at least in Turkey), but they have circled by hostile people: Kurds are even at bad terms with Yazidis and Assyrians, they are at odds with Turks, Syrian Arabs, Azerbaijanis, Iranians, Iraqi Arabs (both Shia and Sunni Arabs). I think that Kurdish elites went all-in, or seriously thinking about going all-in. One last word: If they don’t win, that fire would burn Kurds, and remember: Allah is the best schemer.

Edit: Prime Minister of Turkey, Davutoglu claimed that the perpetrator of the attack was a 24 year old Kurdish guy named as Salih Neccar. According to him, Salih was a member of YPG and he was from Amuda province of Syria.